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The Official CORONAVIRUS oh *&^! thread. Time to start stocking up on food?


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I have had one VA patient ask so far. More paranoia factor.

No travelers yet. We have instituted questioning a la Zika and Ebola about travel.

Currently still more worried about my CHF and COPD patients who won't get a flu shot.....

Our global community comes with some serious consequences - wouldn't change it per se but we can do better.

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2 hours ago, Marinejiujitsu said:

Last I checked it was 1200 infected and 44 dead. Hopefully it doesnt sky rocket. I'm in northern california with all the traveling people to and from china.

Yeah, so either that's 3% mortality rate (!), or waay more people have it than have been diagnosed.

The thing that's alarming is the number of people quarantined.  It was 11, then 18, then 36, and now 56 million people restricted to the outbreak zone in China.  Yeah, and no matter how well you do, building a 1,000 bed hospital is a stupidly empty gesture, because China needed those 1000 beds yesterday, and may rapidly need 10,000 more tomorrow.  Standing up a hospital is far more than just the physical plant--where are they going to get the medical equipment and personnel?  MRIs don't take THAT long to build, ship, and install, compared to how long it takes to train a radiologist...

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9 hours ago, Cideous said:

And what exactly do you do for these people?  Fluids, nebs and maybe some respiratory therapy?  Maybe steroids if their lungs fill with fluid?  Dunno.  Just doesn't seem like much can be done but sit and wait and hope you are not in the 3-5% crowd.

ECMO for everyone.  It was interesting to see the video of one of their clinics with patients coming out of the woodwork and bodies lying covered in the hallway.

Edited by GetMeOuttaThisMess
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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1.full.pdf+html

"The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 (95%CI: 2.32-3.63) and 2.92 (95%CI: 2.28-3.67) estimated using EG and ML respectively..." in comparison to SARS' 1.8ish

Oops, maybe that's too low

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

"
The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10)"

So... 3.8, 2.6, 2.9, 3.3... These are not trending anywhere close to 1 or lower.

Edited by rev ronin
Add a second new study to the same post
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33 minutes ago, Cideous said:

Gawd Urgent Care and the ER's are going to be OBLITERATED.

I masked up for every patient tonight.  Not an N95, just a surgical mask, but going to do so for the foreseeable future.

If you're going to follow two links, these are the two I would monitor...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

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I'm waiting for the first case of fever, chills basically flu like symptoms with a neg flu test that has no history of travel (but were unwittingly exposed at the grocery store by someone who thought it would be a good idea to fly back from China in the middle of a pandemic).  Waiting for that person to be sent home and die.  

The hell providers are going to pay....

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