CAdamsPAC Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Cideous said: At least we know how that one started..... I recall that date when I was at Fort Bragg a long time ago! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgriffiths Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 hours ago, CAdamsPAC said: I recall that date when I was at Fort Bragg a long time ago! As someone who grew up on and around Fort Bragg...ew...but not wrong... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 People in China today. This is a real picture. From everything I am reading, panic is starting to set in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgriffiths Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 So somehow suffocation > coronavirus??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HanSolo Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Stock market seemed to care for about a day, and that's about how much I cared, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator rev ronin Posted January 30, 2020 Administrator Share Posted January 30, 2020 9 hours ago, Cideous said: People in China today. This is a real picture. From everything I am reading, panic is starting to set in. You know, given that the bottoms are open, I doubt anyone's going to suffocate, and given that it appears to need droplet precautions, that's not going to be a bad solution, given that surgical masks have likely been sold out for a week or two by now... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 LOL Rev I was thinking the exact same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sent photo to wife yesterday and told her that this is the new OSHA guideline for dental hygienists (pic) and usage of PPE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakaHoo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Is the panic going to wind down anytime soon, or should I dump my stocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakaHoo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 12:57 PM, HanSolo said: Stock market seemed to care for about a day, and that's about how much I cared, too. The market cares again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 This is going to be a burn through virus. No way to stop it and no treatment for it. We are kidding ourselves if we think it will go down any other way. Like a raging brushfire it's going to just have to burn through humanity. 3-5% of people will prob die. It's the earths way of a natural culling. In a few years a vac will be created which will work for a time, then it will mutate and we will go through it again. One thing is true though...company's supply chains are going to be destroyed which means much less income which means their stock prices are going to get beat to hell. There is no way around this. Right now the market is in rope a dope mode. It's goes down a little and dummies think, "it's down, it's a great time to buy!. I am waiting for multiple weeks of 200-700 point drops as the market goes into full on panic. In all seriousness, I moved 90% of my portfolio over to bonds. Stocks go down and where do you think people with the big bucks retreat to? The bond market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgriffiths Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Cideous said: In all seriousness, I moved 90% of my portfolio over to bonds. Stocks go down and where do you think people with the big bucks retreat to? The bond market. Ignoring the rest of your post as personally I don't think 225+ million people will die from this. But the question is when did you move your portfolio? If you did before the start of this drop then awesome timing. The other question is when are you retiring (or when will you need your nest egg)? If soon, then maybe not a bad idea. But, if you have 10+ years then likely trying to time the market is a poor choice and better to just have MORE TIME in the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HanSolo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Stock market is like watching a kid with a yo-yo going up an escalator. Don't focus on the yo-yo. Leads to over-reaction. Focus on the escalator. Market was due for a correction, anyway. Corona was the catalyst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Too much Corona translates to too much whiskey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator rev ronin Posted February 1, 2020 Administrator Share Posted February 1, 2020 9 hours ago, Cideous said: This is going to be a burn through virus. No way to stop it and no treatment for it. Looks like the most recent consensus R0 is 2.2... and it will be interesting to see how the spread goes. The fatality rate is still up in the air, but even if we assume things are just limited to PRC, we're talking >1m deaths before it's done, I would expect. What we DON'T yet see are non-PRC deaths. We have limited non-PRC spread. My local EMS agency is ignoring the state (following CDC) triage/precaution updates because it's not spreading (that we know of, obviously) in my state yet. This is either a very gutsy move to avoid panic... or hopelessly naive. This is also very much like looking at a catastrophic event unfolding in slow motion: you can see the pieces moving, but are helpless to do anything about it. Other than preemptively clean Sam's Club out of toilet paper, I mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 10 hours ago, mgriffiths said: Ignoring the rest of your post as personally I don't think 225+ million people will die from this. But the question is when did you move your portfolio? If you did before the start of this drop then awesome timing. The other question is when are you retiring (or when will you need your nest egg)? If soon, then maybe not a bad idea. But, if you have 10+ years then likely trying to time the market is a poor choice and better to just have MORE TIME in the market. It's not going to spread to every section of the planet, but in the large metro areas that turn into hotspots yes...prob 3% will die. Sorry, but those are the numbers so far unless you have different mortality rate numbers? Yes, I moved 90% into bonds a few months ago. Let's just say I had a really bad feeling about 2020 and leave it at that. Like Rev said, it's like we are watching it in slow motion and there is not jack we can do about it. I am not a survivalist or a conspiracy guy but living in Texas you learn to have a months supply of water, food, ammo and cash on hand at all times. It's just prudent in this state with its natural disasters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) I need to sell my traditional brick home and get myself a concrete dome structure like the company in Italy, Tx constructs. Since I'm on WW at the moment and eating like cattle, I could just graze on the property. Edited February 1, 2020 by GetMeOuttaThisMess 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgriffiths Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12 hours ago, Cideous said: It's not going to spread to every section of the planet, but in the large metro areas that turn into hotspots yes...prob 3% will die. Sorry, but those are the numbers so far unless you have different mortality rate numbers? This I agree with...especially since, as you said, it seems to be what is already occurring. I was saying I didn't expect it to take 3% of the world's population, which is what I thought you initially meant. 12 hours ago, Cideous said: Yes, I moved 90% into bonds a few months ago. Let's just say I had a really bad feeling about 2020 and leave it at that. Not gonna lie...good move! If you get anymore of those "feelings" about when you put your money back in...let me know! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joelseff Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Chinese ingenuity...Meanwhile the good old flu has claimed ~150 lives in California in January alone. Not a peep from the media.Flu isn't Sexy but it kills more people every year than these novel viruses. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, mgriffiths said: Not gonna lie...good move! If you get anymore of those "feelings" about when you put your money back in...let me know! Market went down 600+ yesterday and my portfolio went up in value. I use Fidelity's State Street U.S. Bond Index Non-Lending Series Fund Class M currently and have been very happy with it. VERY STABLE. Edited February 1, 2020 by Cideous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, GetMeOuttaThisMess said: https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html Good to hear, but those HIV meds are tough on the body not to mention there will not be near enough to go around. We need a Vac and we need it yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I just want to know if I can take the plastic dry cleaning bag off of me yet? It's great for weight loss but it's hard to breath. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joelseff Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Good to hear, but those HIV meds are tough on the body not to mention there will not be near enough to go around. We need a Vac and we need it yesterday.Kaletra (Lopinavir/ritonavir) I believe has gone generic in 2017. It is readily available and not really used much in HIV anymore given the STRs out now to reduce pill burden. But is available. AEs exist but usually in Long Term use I would suppose this is only for less than a month so AEs wouldn't be so much of a concern vs death from Wuhan Virus. Makes sense since Corona virus and HIV both use protease to slice up proteins before replicating. It seems to be a viable TX. I agree we need a Vax but a good viable TX in the meanwhile is also a big development. BTW I read about this on the lancet a week ago and they credited China for discovering it iirc. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Joelseff said: Kaletra (Lopinavir/ritonavir) I believe has gone generic in 2017. It is readily available and not really used much in HIV anymore given the STRs out now to reduce pill burden. But is available. AEs exist but usually in Long Term use I would suppose this is only for less than a month so AEs wouldn't be so much of a concern vs death from Wuhan Virus. Makes sense since Corona virus and HIV both use protease to slice up proteins before replicating. It seems to be a viable TX. I agree we need a Vax but a good viable TX in the meanwhile is also a big development. BTW I read about this on the lancet a week ago and they credited China for discovering it iirc. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Fantastic, thanks for updating me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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