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The Official CORONAVIRUS oh *&^! thread. Time to start stocking up on food?


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9 hours ago, Cideous said:

People in China today.  This is a real picture.  From everything I am reading, panic is starting to set in.

 

image.jpeg.cf020d078c1a6a5d896c81d01d031439.jpeg

You know, given that the bottoms are open, I doubt anyone's going to suffocate, and given that it appears to need droplet precautions, that's not going to be a bad solution, given that surgical masks have likely been sold out for a week or two by now...

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This is going to be a burn through virus.  No way to stop it and no treatment for it.  We are kidding ourselves if we think it will go down any other way. Like a raging brushfire it's going to just have to burn through humanity.  3-5% of people will prob die.  It's the earths way of a natural culling.  In a few years a vac will be created which will work for a time, then it will mutate and we will go through it again.

One thing is true though...company's supply chains are going to be destroyed which means much less income which means their stock prices are going to get beat to hell.  There is no way around this.  Right now the market is in rope a dope mode.  It's goes down a little and dummies think, "it's down, it's a great time to buy!.  I am waiting for multiple weeks of 200-700 point drops as the market goes into full on panic.

In all seriousness, I moved 90% of my portfolio over to bonds.  Stocks go down and where do you think people with the big bucks retreat to?  The bond market.

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1 hour ago, Cideous said:

In all seriousness, I moved 90% of my portfolio over to bonds.  Stocks go down and where do you think people with the big bucks retreat to?  The bond market.

Ignoring the rest of your post as personally I don't think 225+ million people will die from this.

But the question is when did you move your portfolio?  If you did before the start of this drop then awesome timing.  The other question is when are you retiring (or when will you need your nest egg)?  If soon, then maybe not a bad idea.  But, if you have 10+ years then likely trying to time the market is a poor choice and better to just have MORE TIME in the market.

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Guest HanSolo

Stock market is like watching a kid with a yo-yo going up an escalator. Don't focus on the yo-yo. Leads to over-reaction. Focus on the escalator. 

Market was due for a correction, anyway. Corona was the catalyst. 

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9 hours ago, Cideous said:

This is going to be a burn through virus.  No way to stop it and no treatment for it. 

Looks like the most recent consensus R0 is 2.2... and it will be interesting to see how the spread goes. The fatality rate is still up in the air, but even if we assume things are just limited to PRC, we're talking >1m deaths before it's done, I would expect.  What we DON'T yet see are non-PRC deaths.

We have limited non-PRC spread.  My local EMS agency is ignoring the state (following CDC) triage/precaution updates because it's not spreading (that we know of, obviously) in my state yet.  This is either a very gutsy move to avoid panic... or hopelessly naive.  This is also very much like looking at a catastrophic event unfolding in slow motion: you can see the pieces moving, but are helpless to do anything about it.  Other than preemptively clean Sam's Club out of toilet paper, I mean.

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10 hours ago, mgriffiths said:

Ignoring the rest of your post as personally I don't think 225+ million people will die from this.

But the question is when did you move your portfolio?  If you did before the start of this drop then awesome timing.  The other question is when are you retiring (or when will you need your nest egg)?  If soon, then maybe not a bad idea.  But, if you have 10+ years then likely trying to time the market is a poor choice and better to just have MORE TIME in the market.

It's not going to spread to every section of the planet, but in the large metro areas that turn into hotspots yes...prob 3% will die.  Sorry, but those are the numbers so far unless you have different mortality rate numbers?  

Yes, I moved 90% into bonds a few months ago.  Let's just say I had a really bad feeling about 2020 and leave it at that.

 

Like Rev said, it's like we are watching it in slow motion and there is not jack we can do about it.  I am not a survivalist or a conspiracy guy but living in Texas you learn to have a months supply of water, food, ammo and cash on hand at all times.  It's just prudent in this state with its natural disasters. 

 

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12 hours ago, Cideous said:

It's not going to spread to every section of the planet, but in the large metro areas that turn into hotspots yes...prob 3% will die.  Sorry, but those are the numbers so far unless you have different mortality rate numbers?  

This I agree with...especially since, as you said, it seems to be what is already occurring.  I was saying I didn't expect it to take 3% of the world's population, which is what I thought you initially meant.

 

12 hours ago, Cideous said:

Yes, I moved 90% into bonds a few months ago.  Let's just say I had a really bad feeling about 2020 and leave it at that.

Not gonna lie...good move!  If you get anymore of those "feelings" about when you put your money back in...let me know!

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2 hours ago, mgriffiths said:

Not gonna lie...good move!  If you get anymore of those "feelings" about when you put your money back in...let me know!

Market went down 600+ yesterday and my portfolio went up in value.  I use Fidelity's State Street U.S. Bond Index Non-Lending Series Fund Class M currently and have been very happy with it.  VERY STABLE.

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Good to hear, but those HIV meds are tough on the body not to mention there will not be near enough to go around.  We need a Vac and we need it yesterday.

Kaletra (Lopinavir/ritonavir) I believe has gone generic in 2017. It is readily available and not really used much in HIV anymore given the STRs out now to reduce pill burden. But is available. AEs exist but usually in Long Term use I would suppose this is only for less than a month so AEs wouldn't be so much of a concern vs death from Wuhan Virus. Makes sense since Corona virus and HIV both use protease to slice up proteins before replicating. It seems to be a viable TX. I agree we need a Vax but a good viable TX in the meanwhile is also a big development. BTW I read about this on the lancet a week ago and they credited China for discovering it iirc.

 

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Joelseff said:

Kaletra (Lopinavir/ritonavir) I believe has gone generic in 2017. It is readily available and not really used much in HIV anymore given the STRs out now to reduce pill burden. But is available. AEs exist but usually in Long Term use I would suppose this is only for less than a month so AEs wouldn't be so much of a concern vs death from Wuhan Virus. Makes sense since Corona virus and HIV both use protease to slice up proteins before replicating. It seems to be a viable TX. I agree we need a Vax but a good viable TX in the meanwhile is also a big development. BTW I read about this on the lancet a week ago and they credited China for discovering it iirc.

 

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Fantastic, thanks for updating me.  

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