PA field saturation

[ICUman]

Do any members here have any concern of PA job saturation in the future?

 

I am an RN and NP saturation is a hot topic with lots of for profit schools popping up cranking out ill-prepared nurse practitioners in exchange for all the tuition money they get to pocket. To my understanding I've heard this is not unique to nursing as Pharmacy and Law schools are also having this problem, but back to topic, are there any concerns of fierce job competition, and decreased compensation as more PA's enter the field?

 

PA school undoubtedly is more difficult to be admitted to than NP school is. Does this shield the profession from such problems?

 

Some FNP's are experiencing difficulty obtaining positions due to lack of openings around the country, how healthy is the outlook for PA's?

 

I have skimmed the BLS projections and do not place much faith in them as they have been wrong in the past and likely will be again.

[EMEDPA]

there will always be pa/np jobs, but certain markets, like NYC, will get more saturated over time. we generally tell students the following as a new grad:

pick 2:

salary

specialty

location

 

if you get 3 out of 3 it probably isn't a major metro area.

[SocialMedicine]

law went through this problem. law now has to figure out what to do. many JD's do not practice law. many regret the choice because of lacking professional opportunities. 

 

this is a very  germane topic because the University system in the US is undergoing major disruption. I have read close to 10-15% of all private college's face major financial issues. As a result it is no surprise that NYU, UPENN, UCSF, and John Hopkins med schools are not rushing to form PA schools. However , the random rural/suburban no med school college needing to fill salary and other overhead are setting up PA schools left and right. Many have expressed concern about the quality of PAs being produced by some of these institutions. More important the healthcare shortage is so misunderstood and misquoted. The number of clinicians we are creating is ABOVE what is needed in my opinion. Just look at the number of MD PA and NP schools within the last 5 years and planned over the next 5. It is well over 100.  Universities expanded way too fast and the research bucks and other revenue streams the anticipates are just not happening. So they charge kids 50k a year to break even .. and form professional degrees which they can create without limitation such as PA, MBA, MPH. They would just as soon create sociology degrees if people were buying them. 

 

emedpa just look at the number of PA, NP, MD, and DO schools under proposal for creation and have been created in 5 years. Well over 100. Think of all the PA schools you know of who are increasing size. This information IS NOT included in work force modeling. It is tragically behind. You cannot use data from even 5 years ago to discuss work force trends. Even work from Hooker and Cawley did not anticipate this explosion of programs. Look at workforce data for areas of medicine OTHER THAN underserved primary care settings. Even including the underserved primary care demand I am not convinced we need all these practitioners. Additionally this underserved area of medicine is a profession VERY different than what most of these students are interested in doing for a living. 

 

In summary to the OP you are correct we are creating too many clinicians and in 10-15 years the profession will feel it. It is possible disruption will occur in the form of college/university closure and lack of clinical training sites and slow down this enormous increase. This is my opinion. I agree with everything emedpa thinks except this issue hah. 

[cinntsp]

So the question is...how do we get ARC-PA to see the light?

[ventana]

nope   not for the forseeable future

 

With almost 800,000 practicing physicians and something like a 1/3 of them with in in 10 years of retirement we are all set  (and only something like 100,000 PA's)

 

in the future maybe, but I would expect it to become an issue when we start equaling the # of docs...   

 

then it will be an issue.....

 

Certain markets maybe, but not overall

[marktheshark89]

Arc-pa is legally required to accredit any program that meets the standards. It can not choose to reject new programs for concern that there are too many programs, unless they do not meet one or more of the standards. If they do reject a program that meets the standards, they can be sued. That being said, changing the standards themselves is within their power.

[Gordon, PA-C]

Medical and NP schools are no longer being created because we need providers -- they are being created because politicians want an economic stimulus.  Think about that for a moment.

 

In every press release for a new med school, there's some idiot on there making BS claims like "building this med school will bring millions of dollars to the community"

 

Whenever you hear non-medical people talking like that, you are witnessing a future bubble.  This bubble will grow for a long time, but eventually it will burst.  I predict the burst will happen after all the baby boomers die off.  There's going to be a huge glut of providers when that happens.

[EMEDPA]

I don't know. when the boomers  start dying off in mass, say 20 years from now, many of today's PAs in their 40s will be ready to retire(say me...)

[LT_Oneal_PAC]

Not to mention Boomers isn't a lump in the population curve that will go back to some previous level. It's a ripple as they also had multiple children. Them dying off doesn't change each one likely had 2.5 kids on average. A statistic that I made up. Seriously though there are echo generations, smaller baby booms, that will drive further population increases.

[SocialMedicine]

One of our PA researchers made an interesting comment that we do not really understand how clinicians phase our of career ..... especially PA clinicians. Will many work 2 or 3 sessions a week ?

[BruceBanner]

I agree with SocialMed, I think saturation is happening as we speak and will peak in the next 5 years or so.

 

The urban and major metro areas will saturate first (where >75% of students will want or need to live), and it will ripple out from there. I know there are a lot of "rural" cheerleaders here, but the reality is these underserved areas are underserved for a reason. Very different than what most PA students envision their lifestyle to be like.

 

So what will happen? A few possibilities:

 

-Entrance requirements could get easier or more lax to fill seats, but I havent seen this trend start yet.

-Urban/suburban market saturation will force grads into lower-paying gigs and drive our market value down.

-PAs may start filling more dubious and overqualified positions like retail hormone/weight loss/sore throat clinics.

-Experienced PAs will be able to command a premium, especially in primary care/EM.

 

Just a few thoughts. But it IS happening and will continue. Already seeing it where I live. Job postings DEMAND 3-5 years experience as a mandatory requirement, specialty jobs are scarce or undesirable, and the rural jobs in decent locations get nabbed up immediately.

[True Anomaly]

Those of us who have been out practicing for a few years will be fine.  But I could see those who are applying or planning to apply in the near future may struggle with an increasingly saturated job market- which, as many pointed out above, has a lot to do with location and specialty.

[GetMeOuttaThisMess]

I will do my part to help by retiring in 2022 (if not sooner) so that'll open one slot ;-)

 

 

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[SocialMedicine]

Let me add I do not think the profession is doomed. I think we will hit a point where salary stop increasing at the level we want and some PAs may have to consider alternative careers if their desires area or location of medicine is not available. 

[EMEDPA]

I agree with SocialMed, I think saturation is happening as we speak and will peak in the next 5 years or so.

 

The urban and major metro areas will saturate first (where >75% of students will want or need to live), and it will ripple out from there. I know there are a lot of "rural" cheerleaders here, but the reality is these underserved areas are underserved for a reason. Very different than what most PA students envision their lifestyle to be like.

 

So what will happen? A few possibilities:

 

-Entrance requirements could get easier or more lax to fill seats, but I havent seen this trend start yet.

what do you call getting rid of hce requirements?

[EMEDPA]

Those of us who have been out practicing for a few years will be fine.  But I could see those who are applying or planning to apply in the near future may struggle with an increasingly saturated job market- which, as many pointed out above, has a lot to do with location and specialty.

which is why residencies will help set apart the high level pas from the folks destined for low-t, occmed, pain clinic,  and wt loss jobs....

[EMEDPA]

I will do my part to help by retiring in 2022 (if not sooner) so that'll open one slot ;-)

 

 

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actually you are good enough that it will take 3 pas to replace you....:)

[BruceBanner]

what do you call getting rid of hce requirements?

 

News to me. I know it's always been variable but I've never heard of programs doing away with it.

[EMEDPA]

News to me. I know it's always been variable but I've never heard of programs doing away with it.

yup, there are programs that require zero experience and some require a handful of hrs, like 200 or less. one requires 20 hrs of shadowing only.

[BruceBanner]

yup, there are programs that require zero experience and some require a handful of hrs, like 200 or less. one requires 20 hrs of shadowing only.

 

Crazy. A great way to produce grads who don't end up liking healthcare and/or don't have a clue how to function.

[SocialMedicine]

And those programs that require 1000HCE hours often accept a bunch of students without actual HCE. For example the scribe w/ 1000 hours or volunteer in the ED. Definitions of direct patient care are variable.