gbook Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm considering PA school, in my late 30s, but I'm thinking farther ahead to the potential job market after graduation. The job market is good now, but I'm noticing a massive increase in the number of PA schools in the past few years. At first I thought this is great, its a booming industry, more schools mean I have a better chance of getting in, and the PA job market is good. But I started to think more, and I've seen this before. If something is booming now, there's a good chance for a bust later. Aside from oil booms and the housing market, bubbles have happened with other education programs. Computer science around 2000, radiation therapists and radiologic techs in the past 10 years, and with nurses in the past 5 years. All were once a hot commodity, now new grads have a hard time finding jobs. I'm thinking about this because even if I love a particular profession, if there's no jobs available, then that major investment in education may not be worth it. But I'm not implying an impending PA bubble! Just curious what other people think about it. Anyway, what are people thoughts on the potential for a PA bubble in the next decade? Might the PA somehow be different from the other healthcare job bubbles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggySRNA Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 There will always be jobs for PAs. People are living longer in addition to getting sicker. Major cities will always have a high supply with little demand for clinicians and that is for obvious reasons. If you are willing to move to a location with high demand but low supply (rural/underserved areas) then you won't have any trouble finding a well paying medium stress job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinAtkins Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I think the biggest job security as a PA is the versatility in the job. Well, as long as you aren't too picky. Since PA's can change specialties they have a much more broad range of jobs they can choose instead of being stuck within your specialty. And you can work part time in 2 different places at the same time if you wanted or needed to. Sent from my SM-G900T1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbrsmurf Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I am not so rosy about the situation. My wife is a pharmacist and they went through a period of oversupply. Pharmacists were in high demand in the 80's and 90's, which meant more and more pharmacy schools opened. Around mid to late 2000's supply quickly outstripped demand and pharmacy jobs were hard to come by and salaries fell. It's about evened out now, but like with any industry/profession, supply can surpass demand. Physicians are artificially and chronically in demand because residency spots are limited, PAs have no such barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator rev ronin Posted March 18, 2016 Administrator Share Posted March 18, 2016 Anyone who says "It can't happen to PAs" simply isn't understanding the supply and demand equation. The pharmacist comparison is pretty apt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JMPA Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I think the biggest job security as a PA is the versatility in the job. Well, as long as you aren't too picky. Since PA's can change specialties they have a much more broad range of jobs they can choose instead of being stuck within your specialty. And you can work part time in 2 different places at the same time if you wanted or needed to. Sent from my SM-G900T1 using Tapatalk The addition of CAQs and residency programs is an early attempt to move away from the lateral mobility that drew me to the profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinAtkins Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The addition of CAQs and residency programs is an early attempt to move away from the lateral mobility that drew me to the profession.Hmm..... that's unfortunate. I don't like the sound of that. Sent from my SM-G900T1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator True Anomaly Posted March 18, 2016 Moderator Share Posted March 18, 2016 Law has suffered the same problem of a bubble that burst somewhere around 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuralER/Ortho Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Another reason to stop flooding the market with new programs.... Higher education looking to cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MT2PA Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It will happen eventually. I graduate in the next few years and I hope to secure a job I like and can sink my feet in before it happens. Being flexible will be key - working in a specialty you don't like or working hours you don't like or moving to a town/city that isn't your top choice - but it won't guarantee jobs for everyone. I think we will have the exact problem law schools did not too long ago. PAs will graduate with no jobs so people will quit going to school, maybe some programs will close or take in smaller cohorts, and eventually it will *hopefully* even out. There is a level of homeostasis but there is the possibility it ebbs and flows for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 ... and we proactively push for changes that support utilizing PAs to their full potential, including, but not limited to, Full Practice Authority/Autonomy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator LT_Oneal_PAC Posted March 18, 2016 Moderator Share Posted March 18, 2016 850,000 physicians, 250,00 NPs, and a little over 100,000 PAs. We have some time before it's our fault there is a flooding market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabba Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The population is ever increasing and people will always need to be taken care of. Healthcare is pretty safe from that (Though note I didnt say it was impossible) At the worst, I imagine it would be hard to find a job in your hometown or the next, but I think if anyone is willing to move around then there shouldnt be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newton9686 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Also from an economic standpoint PAs could be described as a "inferior substitute" to docs. While I don't like how condescending the term sounds, it's describes the PA profession. We provide a similar service at a lower price compared to docs. Lawyers, Pharmacists, PTs and RNs are constantly concerned with tasks being outsourced to Paralegals, Pharmacy Techs, PTAs and CNAs/LPNs. This has partially led to bubbles in these other professions. Why would someone hire a new PT when I can hire a 20 year PTA for half the price? This is why some docs are defensive towards the PA profession. They believe as PAs continue to increase scope and independence, their salary and value will be inversely decreased. So I would not worry as much about a PA bubble. Is it possible? Of course. But I think our profession's largest concern is legislation and public awareness, both of which will benefit from increased PAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asclepius Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Why would someone hire a new PT when I can hire a 20 year PTA for half the price? This is why some docs are defensive towards the PA profession. They believe as PAs continue to increase scope and independence, their salary and value will be inversely decreased. So I would not worry as much about a PA bubble. Is it possible? Of course. But I think our profession's largest concern is legislation and public awareness, both of which will benefit from increased PAs. I concur, as I also believe legislation is the biggest concern within the PA profession. Perhaps insecurities on part of some MDs is the reason why the PA profession is facing difficulties evolving on par with the NP profession. Until MDs rid themselves of this sense of encroachment by PAs, the PA profession will constantly face opposition for respect and expanding autonomy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbook Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 These are great responses, thanks. It sounds like people are aware of the potential for oversupply, and understand the implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maverick87 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Saturation isn't here yet. I've received offers in big cities for random specialties that I have no experience in. However, it is difficult to get critical care/EM/surgery jobs without experience or knowing anyone. But from what I've seen from previous posts on this forum, it's always been like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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