widroeno Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 The only 2 healthcare professions with demand exceeding supply are physicians and dentists https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/nationalstatelevelprojectionsdentists.pdf Licensed practical nurse and Registered Nurse will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/nursingprojections.pdf Physical Therapist and Occupational Therapist will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/occupationalphysicaltherapy.pdf Pharmacist will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/pharmacists.pdf Physician Assistant and Nurse Practitioners in almost all specialties including primary care will have excess. https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections/primary-care-national-projections2013-2025.pdf https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections/fact-sheet-emergency-medicine.pdf https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections/BHW_FACTSHEET_Neurology.pdf https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections/surgical-specialty-report.pdf Podiatrist and Chiropractors will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/chiropractorspodiatristsapril2015_.pdf CRNAs will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/health-workforce-analysis/research/projections/crna-fact-sheet.pdf Optometrists will have excess https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/visionoccupations.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lkth487 Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Thank the stringent LCME requirements for medical schools and the accreditation requirements for GME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMfuturePA Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 thank the stupid NP schools churning out a ton of new incompetent NP's everyday. Also, they need to start shutting down PA schools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UGoLong Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 The assumptions in the studies are interesting. That healthcare delivery won’t change. That local distributions weren’t considered. Interesting but I’m doubtful about its ability to predict the future.In less than 12 years, most cardiology practices went from privately-owned to hospital-owned. And there is a reason why the whole country doesn’t have the same weather. Distribution matters and assuming nothing further is going to change is an understandable assumption, but I doubt that it will prove to be accurate.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Already the case in DFW. The last Urgent Care job I applied to I was told by the recruiter had 73 CV's for 2 positions. 80% NP's 20% PA's. Think about that for a minute. She said they just threw any CV that didn't have 10 years of experience right into the "nope" file. You guys will hear me screaming "we have 5 years left" on these boards all the time. This is not because I am some hysterical chicken little troll, but born out of what I see on the ground where I live. In your part of the country your mileage may vary, but here we are way over-saturated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
widroeno Posted July 6, 2018 Author Share Posted July 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cideous said: Already the case in DFW. The last Urgent Care job I applied to I was told by the recruiter had 73 CV's for 2 positions. 80% NP's 20% PA's. Think about that for a minute. She said they just threw any CV that didn't have 10 years of experience right into the "nope" file. You guys will hear me screaming "we have 5 years left" on these boards all the time. This is not because I am some hysterical chicken little troll, but born out of what I see on the ground where I live. In your part of the country your mileage may vary, but here we are way over-saturated already. I think almost all major metro areas has reached saturation point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 hello people...rural, critical access hospitals for the win.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 "The HWSM’s projections estimate that while insurance coverage expansion and the subsequent decreased reliance on EDs for non-emergency care will result in reduced demand for physicians and PAs working in Emergency medicine." I think that under the present situation this assumption is faulty. People are losing coverage left and right, increasing, not decreasing, a need for emergency medicine visits for primary care issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ERCat Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 This is depressing... I hate posts like this because if we are reaching saturation that soon there is nothing we can do... Wish I hadn't seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 34 minutes ago, ERCat said: This is depressing... I hate posts like this because if we are reaching saturation that soon there is nothing we can do... Wish I hadn't seen this. see my post above. The EM study from 2017 is based on false assumptions of more Americans having health coverage, when in fact > 20 million will lose health care in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 https://www.marketplace.org/2018/01/19/health-care/here-s-why-more-americans-now-lack-health-insurance http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-survey-20180116-story.html https://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-are-going-without-health-insurance/ These are just a few articles on the topic supporting the fact that many are going without health care. My query on google was "how many Americans lost health care in 2018". results: About 657,000,000 results . feel free to read them all :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UGoLong Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 All I know for sure is that our school graduates 50 PAs a year and they all are finding jobs. I am sure there are parts of the country that are saturated, but lots that aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 1 minute ago, UGoLong said: All I know for sure is that our school graduates 50 PAs a year and they all are finding jobs. I am sure there are parts of the country that are saturated, but lots that aren't. Agree- If you have your heart set on a top salary in a competitive specialty in a big city like NYC, SF, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, L.A., etc you may find you are in for an unpleasant surprise. Remember: Specialty, location, salary. Pick 2. If you are willing to forego working in a big city you can pretty much write your own ticket on specialty and salary, even in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UGoLong Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 From today's job data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, EMEDPA said: Agree- If you have your heart set on a top salary in a competitive specialty in a big city like NYC, SF, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, L.A., etc you may find you are in for an unpleasant surprise. Remember: Specialty, location, salary. Pick 2. If you are willing to forego working in a big city you can pretty much write your own ticket on specialty and salary, even in 2018. This sounds like the early 80’s, except the bell curve was on the upslope then. It isn’t just jobs availability but the quality of same. E and Skyblu, no success this trip for our oceanfront Hawaiian minor care tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, GetMeOuttaThisMess said: This sounds like the early 80’s, except the bell curve was on the upslope then. It isn’t just jobs availability but the quality of same. E and Skyblu, no success this trip for our oceanfront Hawaiian minor care tent. I hear the back side of Oahu is actually a health provider shortage area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 It is beautiful up there but I’m afraid all the mean monsters from “Lost” would come back and get me since they filmed there near the Turtle Bay resort. Still looking for Kristin Bell (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) up there at the same resort when on Oahu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted July 6, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, GetMeOuttaThisMess said: It is beautiful up there but I’m afraid all the mean monsters from “Lost” would come back and get me since they filmed there near the Turtle Bay resort. Still looking for Kristin Bell (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) up there at the same resort when on Oahu. there is a job there to push a button every 108 minutes to prevent the end of the world....(Lost reference) http://lostpedia.wikia.com/wiki/Pushing_the_button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetMeOuttaThisMess Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Bada bing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cideous Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, EMEDPA said: there is a job there to push a button every 108 minutes to prevent the end of the world....(Lost reference) http://lostpedia.wikia.com/wiki/Pushing_the_button I could do that job. In fact, where do I apply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidpresentable Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 6 hours ago, Cideous said: I could do that job. In fact, where do I apply? Apply in person, half a flight away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d-wade Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 16 hours ago, EMEDPA said: I hear the back side of Oahu is actually a health provider shortage area... I was considering doing the NHSC loan repayment program in Hawaii when I graduate - there are actually quite a few physician shortage areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HanSolo Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 I think the overall central argument is correct: there will be a surplus of PAs and NPs someday at the current pace. However, there are so many externalities to consider that we really don't know how the healthcare labor market is going to shake out. I cherry picked a quote from one of the articles here that shows why we might just be OK: "In total, the capability to meet demands across the surgical specialties will fall short by 24,340 physician FTEs, although the national surplus of PAs practicing in surgical specialties (13,990 FTEs) may help to increase physician productivity." This is something I have heard kicked around in various healthcare circles for years now. Bodes well for increasing PA scope of practice. If you look at those maps they provide, almost every state that is projected to have a MD/DO demand exceeding supply will have "excess" PAs and NPs. Not quite sure how they differentiated what a PA/NP could provide in comparison to an MD in terms of services and how that went into their model for "demand," but it doesn't take a PhD in economics to see that the PA's role might evolve in the face of future market forces... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc56 Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 I don't have a lot of faith in GOV projections. Very rarely do I feel they are accurate or even close. I agree with above Location, specialty, pay....Pick 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator ventana Posted July 10, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 10, 2018 not going to happen Clinical doctorate, with full practice authority will make us independent and cheaper then doc's PA is protected in that note I think most professional medical fields are more protected then you realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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