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The OFFICIAL 2nd Wave Covid19 thread...This winter is going to suck.

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Once again. You’re making claims without evidence. And unfortunately, the burden of proof lies with you and your claims. I don’t have to prove a negative. That’s logically infallible. 

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On 9/22/2020 at 8:49 AM, TheFatMan said:

Not to mention the other 800,000 around the world who, apparently, died solely for American politics...

Obviously the fault for this lies at the feet of the POTUS from what I've been reading and hearing in the media?

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Sorry if I missed some nuance here, but elections are related to PA professional issues... how?

I'm being a bit facetious here, but I think it's a step too far to drag in EVERY SINGLE R vs. D or left vs. right issue into a discussion of Covid, so please get back to arguing about how the current administration has or has not botched the response and whether this is or is not a disaster, instead of how we vote.  That work?

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1 hour ago, ANESMCR said:

And unfortunately, the burden of proof lies with you and your claims

Proof, and protection from harm, should come from those who are pushing for the change.  We have NEVER had widespread mail-in voting before.  

The proof will come after we have made the mistake.  Just like what happened with the Democrat's change of the supermajority requirements.

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53 minutes ago, rev ronin said:

Sorry if I missed some nuance here, but elections are related to PA professional issues... how?

I'm being a bit facetious here, but I think it's a step too far to drag in EVERY SINGLE R vs. D or left vs. right issue into a discussion of Covid,

As is usual, it starts with a tangental shot-gun attack on Trump

I'm trying to link to Cideous's first Trump-bashing post here on page 2 where he spreads the exaggeration that Trump said he won't cede power if he loses the election, but for some reason I can't bring the quote to this post.

Edited by Boatswain2PA

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Risking this after Rev's warning:

Fact checking mail in voting: NYTimes.

 

Back to COVID, I, too, am hoping that increased COVID social practices (e.g. masks) will reduce the impact of flu seasons.  Given actions like Florida's Gov DeSantis, removing all COVID related restrictions on business, I'm not holding my breath that things will soon improve.

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Ok back on topic.  This winter=bad.  Already cases are shooting up across the US again.  2nd wave or continuation of the first wave?  Dunno, but it is simply not looking good.  Having said that, I need to run and get my Flu shot!

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Cases are shooting up, but how much of this is due to increased testing?  Colleges are testing like mad and finding lots of positives, but there is no morbidity associated with these.

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Over the summer, especially in the southern US, increases in young folks testing positive preceded increases in older folks testing positive.  Sure, younger folks seem to do better.  The older folks they give it to?  They don't seem to do as well.

 

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Increased testing does not equal increased cases in the way you speak, Boats. 

A positive is a positive is a positive.

That could be one asx individual who could tangentially increase cases by spider web like spread that could involve 200+ people. Thus proving the contagion factor of this virus. 

We have to slow down or stop THE ASYMPTOMATIC spreaders and super spreading events like Sturgis and that wedding in Maine and illegal campaign rallies and mega church gatherings and concerts. 

One positive exposes many who expose more and so on. Of those exposed, some will become critically ill and some will die. COMPLETELY PREVENTABLE with social responsibility and precautions. 

This is virology 101. We have to stop spreading this since we know there are unpredictable outcomes.  The lucky will recover, some will be disabled for a long time and some will die.

It is NOT ok that - oops, some will die.  What if it is your spouse, kid, niece, nephew, grandma etc? 

The social responsibility of citizenship is not negotiable. 

AND - every citizen deserves the right to unobstructed voting. During a public health crisis - MAIL in the votes. 

Add a thumbprint, I don’t care. High risk and marginalized citizens deserve the ability to vote. 

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8 hours ago, Boatswain2PA said:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-was-not-an-inevitability/

I'm going to take another tangent here:  It has been well-established in the conservative media that NY sending mildly-symptomatic patients back to nursing homes caused significant increase in mortality (I think this article will show that, dont' have time for deep read again).  The far-right media of course blamed Cuomo personally because that's what the far-right media does (just like the far left attacks Trump for everything).  I think Cuomo's State Dept of Health made the rule to send them back to ensure they had enough hospital beds for the very sick (as NY got hit first, and we thought this might be the black-swan event with millions dead).

But as I went to google to find a source....nothing.  Nothing but left wing articles with headlines like "Cuomo not responsible!" and "Cuomo following guidelines" regarding sending covid patients back to nursing homes.  I know there were good articles about it, but Dr. Google wouldn't pull them up.  Had to specifically search for "National Review" + "Covid" + "New York" + "Nursing Homes" to find one.

 

Yeah, a bunch of very old people (and a small number of young/healthy) died from a novel coronavirus.  I'm not saying this isn't a real thing.  

But I wonder if this knocked off a lot of people who were going to die over the next 6-12 months anyway.  If THAT is the case, then we will see the spike that you show, but we may see no difference when measured over a longer period.  

Again, my perspective is we have to prepare for another wave in the fall/winter, but we don't need to panic like the OP seems to infer.  We know not to send old people back to NHs with the virus, we know who is at greatest risk, we now have (relatively) rapid testing, greater therapeutics, and will likely have a vaccine soon.

But that won't stop the media from ensuring we all live in fear and panic.

 

Unfortunately the NR article you linked to doesn't have much data other than a single graph showing deaths/100k for people in LTC/SNF at a single point fairly early on in the whole thing. 

https://khn.org/news/is-cuomo-directive-to-blame-for-nursing-home-covid-deaths-as-us-official-claims/#:~:text=According to the COVID Tracking,the state's 25%2C275 COVID deaths.

This fact check looks at the original question with a good take ok both sides, namely an evaluation that showed the spread was most likely due to the workers rather than the discharges, some of these folks works in 3-4 different locations. Also shows that the managers of these facilities misinterpreted the guidelines (willfully for $$$?) as there was no requirement if they couldn't take them safely.

In regards to the deaths, you're saying that over the next 6-12 months we will see that graph take a precipitous negative trend reflecting that the same people would've died anyways, the process was just a little accelerated? Guess we will see, still think that the loss of 6-12 months of life is fairly significant. I mean, if it's not then why are we spending a kajillion (hyperbole) dollars a year on cancer treatments to eke out that last little bit of existence?

All comes down to balancing priorities. Someone smarter than me weigh in, does that fall under ethics as we are medical or morals as we're humans?

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6 hours ago, CAdamsPAC said:

Obviously the fault for this lies at the feet of the POTUS from what I've been reading and hearing in the media?

I never said that nor did I imply it.

The point was that deadly viruses don't really give a damn about American politics and an election isn't going to make it disappear.  Conspiracy theories make no difference.

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6 hours ago, Boatswain2PA said:

Cases are shooting up, but how much of this is due to increased testing?  Colleges are testing like mad and finding lots of positives, but there is no morbidity associated with these.

Care to provide a citation for that?

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On 9/22/2020 at 12:45 PM, EMEDPA said:

I agree that there is some hysteria about covid, some warranted, some not. Health care providers are guilty of this as well. I saw six patients with covid on my last shift, and sent them all home. A local urgent care sent them in, 2 by ambulance, with sx that could have been managed at home. I discharged the 2 by ambulance from the ambulance bay. They both felt fine. Cough + covid with stable VS and benign exam does not equal 911.

The other hysteria is XYZ pt "might have covid".  Nurse yesterday: He is short of breath, it might be Covid!!!. Me: I think more likely it is all the rib fx he sustained when he was assaulted and hit with a bat...

 

 

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10 hours ago, TheFatMan said:

Care to provide a citation for that?

just what I am reading in local news and what I am seeing.  News is chalk full of hysterical reporting about frat houses and sororities with "major outbreaks", and how many football players from every high school team have tested positive.  The numbers of positives are still shooting up locally.  But get this, they had had put a 6% positive rate as the standard for business closures/restrictions/marks.  But with the increase in testing, despite the higher numbers of positives we are down to 5% positive so they changed that rule.

Yet in the metropolitan area of >500,000 people there are 3 in the ICU with Covid.  Probably more people in ICU with MRSA.

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Not getting into everything being talked about above...but will give my personal example of why this winter will suck:

I'm covering one of our UCs for some extra cash (I have a few more scheduled in October and then will be done until Spring...sorry, not worth my sanity to be dealing with COVID and influenza).  Just had a student from a local college come in with clear COVID symptoms after BORROWING a woodwind instrument from the school that had been "cleaned."  I find it hard to believe there is any effective way to clean a woodwind instrument apart from an autoclave...but I feel like that would also then destroy the instrument.  It was her instructor that suggested she borrow an instrument.

But, upon presentation she was clearly in the process of developing respiratory distress and therefore transported via EMS to the hospital for evaluation, testing, etc.  She has been admitted, her COVID is positive (didn't even know we had the capability to do it that quick here), and transfer to a higher acuity hospital is being discussed.

The level of stupidity here is just appalling.  I've already called the school, but it's the weekend. But, whoever made the suggestion for this student to borrow an instrument (even making it an option) should be terminated immediately, and I'm not one for lawsuits but if I were the parents I would be strongly considering one.

 

Edit: just received an update, she has been transferred and is on some form of breathing assistance (don't know which since we aren't treating facility anymore)

Edited by mgriffiths
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7 hours ago, Boatswain2PA said:

just what I am reading in local news and what I am seeing.  News is chalk full of hysterical reporting about frat houses and sororities with "major outbreaks", and how many football players from every high school team have tested positive.  The numbers of positives are still shooting up locally.  But get this, they had had put a 6% positive rate as the standard for business closures/restrictions/marks.  But with the increase in testing, despite the higher numbers of positives we are down to 5% positive so they changed that rule.

Yet in the metropolitan area of >500,000 people there are 3 in the ICU with Covid.  Probably more people in ICU with MRSA.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Newest model shows 371,500 US deaths by January 1st, 2021.  But I guess that's just "hysteria" or "fake news".

Sadly, there's nothing fake about it to the families who are being devastated by loved ones dieing needlessly thanks to this administrations mishandling.  I'm still waiting for it to go away...you know...."Like a Miracle!".  

Edited by Cideous
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8 minutes ago, Cideous said:

 

Sadly, there's nothing fake about it to the families who are being devastated by loved ones dining needlessly thanks to this administrations mishandling.  I'm still waiting for it to go away...you know...."Like a Miracle!".  

yup. My best friend's mom died of covid-related issues a few weeks ago. dx to death in the ICU on a vent with a chest tube and pressors in 2 weeks. preventable and stupid. Don't know how I escaped getting it. The whiole family had it and I was there helping out a lot. 4 negative tests so far, knock on faux hospital wood. 

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Well, that's a lot better than the 2.2 million deaths that initial forecasts made. Blaming Trunp for the 200k deaths makes about as much sense as giving him the credit for saving 2 million (or 1.85 million if your projection holds true).

Every death is as tragic as it is inevitable, whether it is covid, CHF, accidents, cancer, or any other cause listed on the death certificate.

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A couple points.

At the beginning of this whole thing, epidemiologists said that if the measures being taken were successful then people would say it was a huge overreaction. Of course it seems like it wasn't a big deal compared to initial projections. Thankfully many leaders took it seriously. 

Secondly, yes, our commander in chief deserves all the credit for saving millions and millions (and millions) of lives. He was tireless in telling us it was no big deal, mocking those wearing masks, pushing unproven medications, siding with protesters wanting states to open prematurely, threatening to withhold emergency funds to states for political reasons, retweeting conspiracy theories, golfing, holding massive rallies not requiring masks unless you are near him, ruining our relationship with the WHO, and undermining the world's foremost experts on infectious diseases. 

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17 minutes ago, TheFatMan said:

A couple points.

At the beginning of this whole thing, epidemiologists said that if the measures being taken were successful then people would say it was a huge overreaction. Of course it seems like it wasn't a big deal compared to initial projections. Thankfully many leaders took it seriously. 

Secondly, yes, our commander in chief deserves all the credit for saving millions and millions (and millions) of lives. He was tireless in telling us it was no big deal, mocking those wearing masks, pushing unproven medications, siding with protesters wanting states to open prematurely, threatening to withhold emergency funds to states for political reasons, retweeting conspiracy theories, golfing, holding massive rallies not requiring masks unless you are near him, ruining our relationship with the WHO, and undermining the world's foremost experts on infectious diseases. 

THIS

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20 minutes ago, TheFatMan said:

A couple points.

At the beginning of this whole thing, epidemiologists said that if the measures being taken were successful then people would say it was a huge overreaction. Of course it seems like it wasn't a big deal compared to initial projections. Thankfully many leaders took it seriously. 

Secondly, yes, our commander in chief deserves all the credit for saving millions and millions (and millions) of lives. He was tireless in telling us it was no big deal, mocking those wearing masks, pushing unproven medications, siding with protesters wanting states to open prematurely, threatening to withhold emergency funds to states for political reasons, retweeting conspiracy theories, golfing, holding massive rallies not requiring masks unless you are near him, ruining our relationship with the WHO, and undermining the world's foremost experts on infectious diseases. 

We have a winner!

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5 hours ago, TheFatMan said:

the beginning of this whole thing, epidemiologists said that if the measures being taken were successful then people would say it was a huge overreaction. Of course it seems like it wasn't a big deal compared to initial projections. Thankfully many leaders took it seriously. 

That's the tough thing with public health.  If it works, nobody realizes it.  Nobody can find that single patient who has been saved by a vaccine.

As to taking it seriously, in the beginning very few were taking it seriously.  Trump was saying it was no big deal as he was shutting down foreigners traveling from China in January.  Meanwhile Pelosi was saying no big deal as she told people to come to Chinatown and party.

4 hours ago, bobuddy said:

Secondly, yes, our commander in chief deserves all the credit for saving millions and millions (and millions) of lives....the world's foremost experts on infectious diseases. 

You forgot to mention his RACIST restrictions on travel from China back in January, his DICTATORIAL move in implementing the wartime production act to produce ventilators (and other things), and of course his POLITICAL stunt of sending a USN hospital ship to New York.

 

You just did the shotgun attack my friend.  Pick one complaint at a time and I might be able to keep up with you in a reasonable discussion.

BTW - I'm no Trump supporter, but I thi k he gets a bad rap from the media et al.

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