HawkJ2010 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This post is in regards to future over-saturation in physician assistant field. I realize that the future of PA's is a bright one... but with the enticing salary, shorter length of schooling, and wide variety of specialties there is no wonder many people are changing careers at this time. Looking at the rough statistics there were approx. 75,000 employed PA's in 2008 with a projected 40% increase through 2018. While on paper 40% increase seems great there are mathematically ~30,000 openings. Now, if you take the approx. 150 PA schools graduating an annual class of about 40 students you would reach that 30,000 cap in about 5-6 years. Anywhere after the 6 year mark and the number of PA's will be greater than the amount of jobs available. So roughly anyone graduating after 2015/2016 will be hard-pressed to find a job. Does any of this make sense to you? Questions? Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted January 18, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 18, 2012 The need for pa's is going up at a faster rate than we can produce them and the first generation of pa's are all retired or getting ready to do so. Pa's will have a much broader scope of practice in the future and will be used in more practice settings than they are now. Every pa for the next 50 yrs will not have a problem finding a job if they have a bit of flexibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corpsman2PA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 While on paper 40% increase seems great there are mathematically ~30,000 openings. Now, if you take the approx. 150 PA schools graduating an annual class of about 40 students you would reach that 30,000 cap in about 5-6 years. What is the annual retirement rate? This ought to factor in somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkJ2010 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I can understand that. Seeing as how PA's have a bit of freedom in what they do WHEN they have a supervising Physician... it only makes sense to replace MD/DO's with PA's and pay someone less money to practically do the same job. Do you believe that once the PA profession becomes a more popular field that the ability to change specialties will halt? What do you think about a decrease in pay once the demand for the profession is starting to be met? No research on retirement rates... I know that it should play a role in the numbers but I figured retirement rates and graduation rates would be just about equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corpsman2PA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No research on retirement rates... I know that it should play a role in the numbers but I figured retirement rates and graduation rates would be just about equal. So that would mean there would be no change in numbers if for every 5,000 that graduate, 5,000 retired. I would think retirement to be less than the graduation rate. This would prolong your 5-6 year projection out quite a bit as the field grows kinda like Emedpa said. I think that as the overall population grows it correlates to job openings. The class of 2016 should be just fine :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkJ2010 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 The class of 2016 should be just fine :) For my sake I hope so! I am not too worried about the topic I just find it sort of interesting. The same thing is going on with nurses, the demand is so huge and there are about 2 nursing schools every 1000 sq. miles. Seems like there should have been some budgeting in regards to the paper mills, otherwise those who are banking on becoming a Nurse, NP, PA may find themselves in the surplus aisle of the job market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laifalove Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's not necessarily surplus, but the PA I shadowed brought up something I never really thought of before. In California, the nursing unions here are HUGE at hospitals. They have a tight grip on the hiring process, as a result, hospitals rarely hire PAs. They hire NPs instead. You'll find some PAs in ED, internal medicine, and maybe surgery, but not so much in the other specialties. She said it's difficult to find a job in a private practice setting as well, there just aren't that many job openings. Given that though, I see Kaiser constantly posting PA jobs here in California, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkJ2010 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 To an extent I can see their reasoning behind hiring more NP's than nurses (maybe NP's are moving in to supervise all of the nurses). However, I don't really see how they could pass up on the opportunity to replace/introduce an individual who can do the exact same thing as a regular physician for half of the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkJ2010 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Exactly, I feel like I would really enjoy the PA field and all that it has to offer. It's just that the future is claimed to be bright, however, I feel like the field may become oversaturated and bleak within 1-2 decades. I had looked into other options but it seems as though many jobs in the healthcare field wouldn't be worth the large bill from graduate programs in the long run. I may be wrong but I'm open to others' opinions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Steve Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 32 million more people are expected to have health care after 2014. The Baby Boom Generation (those born between 1945 to 1964) are retiring. These two rising tides of eligible patients isn't' close to cresting yet. Can you find ANY job out there that sets you up so well for a training program that takes on average about 27 months? (on top of the entrance requirements). Do you fear that in 1-2 DECADES that you'll be out of work because of new grads saturating the market? Put yourself in HR's shoes...they have you, with 10+ years of PA experience under your belt already hired by the company, already networked throughout. Do you think they will find some reason to let you go only to hire a new grad who carries a substantial risk of malpractice, maladjustment, and the associated costs of job start up? If these numbers make you feel uneasy about the job market then I HIGHLY suggest you win the lottery or find a rich, about to die, relative and aim for early retirement. Of course there is that option to find that other career field that surpasses the long term outlook for PAs...if you find out what it is, don't tell anyone. That would be like giving away directions to your favorite fishing spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theyus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We're going to be short something to the tune of 150,000 health care providers by 2020. States have been pressuring programs to increase class sizes to keep up with demand. There's no shortage of need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted January 21, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2012 We're going to be short something to the tune of 150,000 health care providers by 2020. States have been pressuring programs to increase class sizes to keep up with demand. There's no shortage of need. yup, even if we doubled output and med schools did the same we would still come up short. anyone working in medicine in the next 50 yrs will always be able to find a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterallsummer Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 People are getting older and staying sick. Outlook is good :D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You are also assuming that every PA school is turning out 40 PAs a year. My class is 30, last year they graduated 28. That is 25% fewer than your estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkJ2010 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I was just estimating on the high end of assumptions, I didn't think my equation was perfect, just a very very rough estimate. It's nice to hear the opinions of many PA's/PA students, though. I am very interested in this profession from my previous shadowing... but as I see "Shadowing makes you an experienced health care provider like watching the food network makes you an experienced chef." Which is why this topic is aimed at those experienced enough to give me feedback. I appreciate all the answers and I'm very excited about my potential future as a PA. One quick question, I have previously asked about taking my pre-req's at a community college (for financial reasons). Seeing as how I will already have a degree from a 4-year institution with a fairly high GPA I feel like I have proved I could handle the academic rigor of a university, however my major does not stand up very well to that argument. Anyways, with the strict admissions process into PA programs and the high need for those spots to be filled... do you foresee PA schools taking on the requirement of pre-req's being taken at a 4-year university and tightening down like Med schools have? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted January 21, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2012 community college is not a problem for prereqs for the vast majority of pa programs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taotaox1 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 all my pre-reqs were at community college and my BA is in English. Got into duke, and had lots of interviews at good schools. They apparently didnt care. However check websites of the schools you want apply to. Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Steve Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 All my pre reqs were via community college as well, got into UW/Medex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 My prereqs were at a community college, and my BAS was in Public Safety Administration. Other degrees in my class include Business Administration, General Studies, Social Science, Physical Education, Liberal Arts, and General Studies. Twelve of the 30 in my class are non-science based degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 My prereqs were at a community college, and my BAS was in Public Safety Administration. Other degrees in my class include Business Administration, General Studies, Social Science, Physical Education, Liberal Arts, and General Studies. Twelve of the 30 in my class are non-science based degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medman2007 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 People are getting older and staying sick. Outlook is good :D. I read in some journal a couple of months ago that nearly 10,000 people will turn 65 each day for the next 19 years (or something to that effect). Haven't check the facts behind that statement, but if even 1/2 correct then business should be good - especially for geriatrics, ophth., and ortho (all those knee and hip replacements) ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medman2007 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 People are getting older and staying sick. Outlook is good :D. I read in some journal a couple of months ago that nearly 10,000 people will turn 65 each day for the next 19 years (or something to that effect). Haven't check the facts behind that statement, but if even 1/2 correct then business should be good - especially for geriatrics, ophth., and ortho (all those knee and hip replacements) ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmood Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You are also assuming that every PA school is turning out 40 PAs a year. My class is 30, last year they graduated 28. That is 25% fewer than your estimate. But my class is 66. ;) Don't worry, we'll take up your slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmood Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You are also assuming that every PA school is turning out 40 PAs a year. My class is 30, last year they graduated 28. That is 25% fewer than your estimate. But my class is 66. ;) Don't worry, we'll take up your slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator EMEDPA Posted January 27, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 27, 2012 But my class is 66. ;) Don't worry, we'll take up your slack. and my class was 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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