Statistical chance of getting into PA school

[JohnnyM2]

 

For some time, I have pondered this question? What percent of all applicants to PA school get accepted. In Texas, where I live, there are 7 schools. Each claims to get 800-1,000 applicants (more or less) and each accepts 40-90 students in each class. Let's say, for the sake of simplicity, each school gets 900 applicants and accepts 60 students by lottery. If every student who applies in Texas applies to every Texas school, there would be just 900 unique applicants and, since 7 x 60=420 of these get accepted, the statistical chance of acceptance is 420/900~46%. Not too bad. However, if every applicant applies to just one Texas school then there are 6,300 unique applicants for 420 slots so the statistical chance of getting accepted is less than 7%. The statistical chance of getting accepted is actually somewhat greater in both cases because many students apply a second or third time and many re-applicants get accepted. Also your real chance of getting accepted isn't your statistical chance because PA schools, hopefully, don't use a lottery. A lot of applicants are hopelessly unqualified, ignore posted prerequisites, don't meet basic requirements, don't complete supplemental apps, etc. These applicants are not part of the competitive pool.

There isn't any way to actually calculate your chances since we don't know the number of unique applicants to all of the Texas schools. We also don't know the % of applicants that go straight into the round file or how many applicants reapply, how many times they apply or how they are ranked.

BUT, all texas schools use CASPA so it stands to reason that CASPA would know the number of unique applicants in each cycle. That info, alone, would help to define your statistical chance of acceptance in each cycle. Schools must also know what percent of applicants are too uncompetitive to get serious consideration. That info would also help qualified applicants to understand their chances. Knowing how applicants are ranked at each school would also shed some light on the subject. The same ideas could be used for ask CASPA schools, nationwide.

Does anyone know if any of this information is available anywhere? I suspect not but am curious.

Of course the competitive student knows he/she can improve their chances by satisfying all pre-reqs, applying early, reading all the helpful advice on this forum and exceeding all minimum requirements.

I know this is a somewhat useless post because we probably can't get to the answer. Having said that, I open it up for comments.

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[UGoLong]

Not a bad question (though probably belongs in the pre-PA section)...

 

There is data available. That said, I propose we remember what my late Mom said when we were trying to sell our house 50 years ago and were concerned that we weren't having lots of people coming through the house: "We're not in a mass market; we just need one buyer." The same is true with one person getting one seat in one PA program.

 

The data I quote below comes from the PAEA and their 2012 report from CASPA. It gives data from the last several years and for the nation as a whole. It gives the average GPAs, HCE years, age, gender, etc.

 

- Number of unique applicants: 18,510

- Number of students accepted: 5293

- Average number of schools applied to per student: 6.2

 

There are lots of other good pieces of information; check out the presentation at www.paeaonline.org/index.php?ht=a/GetDocumentAction/144686

 

And good luck.

[JohnnyM2]

Not a bad question (though probably belongs in the pre-PA section)...

 

There is data available. That said, I propose we remember what my late Mom said when we were trying to sell our house 50 years ago and were concerned that we weren't having lots of people coming through the house: "We're not in a mass market; we just need one buyer." The same is true with one person getting one seat in one PA program.

 

The data I quote below comes from the PAEA and their 2012 report from CASPA. It gives data from the last several years and for the nation as a whole. It gives the average GPAs, HCE years, age, gender, etc.

 

- Number of unique applicants: 18,510

- Number of students accepted: 5293

- Average number of schools applied to per student: 6.2

 

There are lots of other good pieces of information; check out the presentation at www.paeaonline.org/index.php?ht=a/GetDocumentAction/144686

 

And good luck.

Thanks. PAEA is really a great resource and probably underutilized by pre-PAs. One conclusion I draw from all this is that (the vast majority of) applicants should cast a wide enough net to find that school or schools that accept them. 6 is a good number. So nationwide, 25% to 30% of all applicants get accepted somewhere they have applied to. When my daughter applied to PA school, she applied to six texas schools and got four interviews. Her first choice of schools rejected her after a long wait. Another accepted her the day after her interview. You just have to find the school(s) that think you are a great fit for their program....kind of like the house.

 

 

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