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Boatswain2PA last won the day on December 29 2019

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About Boatswain2PA

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  1. Too bad we cant actually have good discussions like this MediMike. You had a good rant there. I didnt say we had a perfect safety net. We dont, and we never will because it doesnt exist. The more robust safet net we have, the more some people will take advantage of it, and the more perverse incentive some people will have to use it instead of work. Meanwhile the more uncomfortable we make our safety net, the more people will fall through the holes. I replied to Cid's erroneous statement that "we dont have a safety net", and showed that we do indeed have one. Regarding the Covid post - There are densely populated areas that were hammered, thinly populated areas that have been barely affected (The county I am in right now has seen ZERO cases), and everywhere in between. Perhaps someday the mods here will ket us have political discussions without bashing on each other, or shutting down the conversations as almost everything we do in healthcare has political consequences. Back to the OP
  2. No safety nets in this country? Really? Well, here's a few: https://www.medicaid.gov/ https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/disability/ https://yourtexasbenefits.hhsc.texas.gov/programs/tanf/families - Texas specific https://www.twc.state.tx.us/ - Unemployment for Texas. Oh, and remember that additional $600/month unemployment benefits that is funded by the feds. In case you have patients who need housing assistance in the Dallas area: https://dhantx.com/. Every other area has somewhat similar safety net for housing. Kids need to eat for free in the summer, right? There's a program for that too: https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp So, we have a safety net for health care, for the disabled, for the unemployed, for those without a home, and for those who need to feed their kids. Oh, and TANF to cover anything else. What we don't have is a culture that encourages people to have a few months of savings instead of buying the new $1,000 iphone every year.
  3. Sorry for the confusion. This site does have it's problems though. Threads that focus on "liberal" viewpoints are allowed uninterrupted, even when they disparage conservative viewpoints. However as soon as there is a conservative rebuttal some mods close it down.
  4. The disdain for us stoopid deplorables by a bunch of sanctimonious so-called liberals is ridiculous. This was on my radar in January, in Feb we stocked up our pantry & other supplies. In March I was telling my friends this looked like it was going to be really, really bad. Rates were going to be doubling every 2-3 days, we were going to run out of hospital beds and vents, we would all know someone who dies from this. Pulled my kid from daycare. Showered/changed before leaving work. Social distance, wear a mask. The n value of this was estimated to be as high as SIX, airborne, lingers on hard surfaces for 3 days...we were ALL going to get it, and maybe 2.2 MILLION Americans were going to die from it. Hospital volumes/utilization crashed, hours/pay crashed. Few friends lost their businesses, many family/friends lost their jobs. I have a little niece who needs an elective surgery so she doesn't wind up in a wheelchair...it's been delayed indefinitely as she continues to struggle to walk. A friend died and the family couldn't have a funeral because social distancing, and then because of fear of rioters. The economy is in the tank because we shut everything down. Meanwhile I see thousands of rioters not wearing masks, and there is a bunch of public health idjits who sign a letter saying that it's okay for these folks to stand next to each other and scream because, you know...politics. Come June I have not admitted a single COVID-19 patient to the hospital, and have only had a few patients who have tested positive but have mild symptoms. I don't know anyone who has died from this. I encourage elderly to socially distance and wear a mask when they go to the store/etc. Otherwise life goes on as pretty normal for us here. Masks are off, kid is back in daycare, I'm not showering/changing/disinfecting before leaving the ED. The US has had 120K+ deaths, but 43% of them have been nursing home deaths, mostly in states where the governors ordered the nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients back. Yeah, and liberals want to think Republican governors are stupid....all 5 governors who ordered this were Democrat. (In all honesty, I understand their reasoning, however it's funny how that is mostly ignored by the media). We crashed the economy and cancelled spring as a national goal of preventing our hospitals from being overwhelmed and having 2.2 million deaths. We have accomplished this. The curve has been flattened. Will there be outbreaks and bumps here and there? Yes. This is a novel virus and is going to go through the population no matter what we do (unless we get an effective vaccine). We can obviously take some steps to slow it down (like social distancing, wearing mask), or speed it up (rioting), but unless we get a vaccine or reach herd immunity, it's going to keep spreading. When there is an outbreak or bump, we should all increase our social distancing/masks/etc to spread that bump out. But how bad is it really? The media scares us daily with the new numbers. In the county I live in we have over 500,000 people. There are just over 350 active cases per the health department. The next county over, where I work, has 70K people, and there are 12 active cases. And this is despite a massive increase in recent testing that has resulted in mostly young, asymptomatic people testing positive. I've read some data that shows it's mortality rate may be as low a 0.1-0.3%, lower than influenza. Want to tell me I lack critical thinking skills? You won't like my response..... Here is where you lack constitutional understanding. The Constitution does not list what our rights are. Instead it clearly defines what the government CANNOT do. And you just conflated not wearing a mask with being a disease vector like Typhoid Mary when there is conflicting data on how infective non-symptomatic people are. Good. Let parents teach their kids about sex education. Or local school districts, with parental involvement, decide if they want to. And it makes sense to EMPHASIZE abstinence until marriage as this is the best way for young people to avoid pregnancy when single parenthood is the single largest predictor of poverty for women.
  5. Much more intricate than this. In my opinion average housing prices won't drop until/unless we see a housing crash on the coasts. The average cost of a single home in San Francisco is $900,000. I have purchased five houses, an 80 acre parcel of land to build dream house, and built a huge barn with less than that amount. I see no change in the government intrusion that allows the rich to keep getting richer, so I don't see a big drop in the coastal home values. Where I do see a big drop is the price of small starter homes where people who are scraping by will lose their homes. Government mandated forebearance stops in July, as does the ridiculous additional $600 in unemployment. This MAY drive down the unemployment rate and get our businesses back to work, but we'll see. Retirees on SS will be fine, as will us military retirees,etc....until we are not. I do not expect to get my military retirement for the rest of my life. I don't expect to get anything from SS.
  6. And the S&P was up 1% yesterday. Day to day swings are not worth tracking. You should look to your event horizon to see what your risk acceptance is. I had to do the same thing (notarized acknowledgement from wife) for one of my private accounts. I don't understand why... From:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/coronavirus-mortgage-bailouts-suddenly-swell-as-homeowners-struggle.html "By loan type, 6.9% of all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages and 12.5% of all FHA/VA loans are currently in forbearance plans. Another 9.6% of loans in private label securities or banks’ portfolios are also in forbearance." This is indicative of why I am suggesting it will be mostly mid-lower priced houses that will have a glut of foreclosures soon. Those who qualify for the traditional FM/FM mortgages almost always put a significant chunk down payment, have lower interest rates, have better debt-to-income ratios, and sometime even do 15 (or even 10 or 5) year loans. This means they can refinance if needed if they get into trouble like this. Whereas with FHA/VA loans there are traditionally low- to zero- down payments, so no equity at purchase so reduced ability to refinance. Financing is also more expensive with more points up front (unless disabled and getting VA loan), so refinancing is again less likely. Furthermore they generally have worse debt-to-income ratios, and are almost always 30 year loans. So 12.5% of FHA/VA loans are in forebearance plans. Depending on what these forebearance plans are (which as MGriffiths has alluded to, can be very difficult for customers to figure out), I expect to start seeing a rise in lower-end foreclosure homes for sale in 3-6 months. When will the worse of it/best pricing come? I don't know, too many variables including what the forebearance plans are, how many first time homebuyers will jump in the market, and how many investors are sitting on cash (I think a lot).
  7. Because many people are financially stupid. Many people only pay what they have to, kicking debt down the road every chance they can. Glaring examples are congress, and people who no longer like their three year old car that they are upside down on, but trade it in anyway, and just roll the debt into new car payment. "But its the same payment!" they will say, not realizing that they just signed a 7 year car note. So with this, there will be many lower income folks who, because they didnt have to, will not have made their mortgage payment. Come July they will have to, and they will have to start repaying rhe past 3 months that they skipped. Some banks are stretching that 3 missed monthly payments over a year....but that will still uncrease the mortgage by 25%. Many cant afford that. Sime banks want the past 3 months paid in full in July. Pretty sure that wont happen for anyone. Make sense?
  8. No growth potential there. Worse yet, if/when inflation takes off those dollars will be devalued.
  9. Good thinking. Will also depend on your level of taxable income later. You have to subtract todays tax from your projected taxes in the future to see which would be better. You also have to make under the incone limits for a ROTH, or do a backdoor if you dont.
  10. Not solely. Trump, love him or hate him, has done some necessary things that gave our economic production a huge boost. Cutting regulations is a huge boost, as is fighting back against Chinas intellectual theft.
  11. And government intervention severely exacerbated the impacts of Covid in the economy, and therefore the housing market, and then the Paycheck Protection Act delayed but worsened the impact.
  12. These are times I am very thankful that we own everything we have, and live in an area where everyone still believes in property rights. There are enough people with enormous amounts of money so that these vacation properties like that will never become cheap. It will be the smaller starter home that will be foreclosed on due to the terrible loan-deferral of the PPP.
  13. If you are going to spend the money in the next 5 years then historically its been dangerous to leave it in stocks. We are in same boat saving to build our dream house in hopefully 2 years and have that cash sitting in savings earning 1.4(?)% instead of the market, but dont want to lose 40% on a big correction. My additional fear is that inflation (see above) will hit hard before we can build. I wouldnt completely rely on SS in 4 years, and I would look very carefully at how your pension is funded.
  14. According to the modern monetary theory....forever. I dont believe it. National debt can go to in infinity as long as there is someone (the fed) to buy the debt. The fed, of course, prints the money out if thin air. So inflation... Mortgages are going to go into default in July-Aug. In Oct-Nov I think we will start seeing foreclosures. First of next year is when I expect to pick up a couple more properties cheap.
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